Most economic indicators are revised after their first release. This page shows two
lenses on that for the U.S. labor market: monthly revisions to nonfarm
payrolls (PAYEMS) and the annual benchmark revision to
the unemployment rate (UNRATE). Lower unemployment isn't necessarily lower revision
risk — the point here is to see whether the number you read on day one
survives contact with later data.
Nonfarm payrolls revisions, last 24 months
Each observation month plotted three times: as first published (blue), one month
later (orange), and two months later (green). Source:
ALFRED (PAYEMS).
Show PAYEMS table
Observation
Initial release
Initial value
+1 month
+2 months
Net revision (+2 − initial)
Unemployment rate — before vs after the latest annual benchmark
UNRATE is rarely revised between releases, but each January's Employment Situation
incorporates an annual benchmark that can shift up to five years of history.
Blue is today's series; orange is the same series as it stood the day
before the most recent benchmark release. Source:
ALFRED (UNRATE).
How to read this page
“Initial release” means the value the day BLS first published it.
“+1 month” and “+2 months” are the values as they stood after
the next two scheduled employment reports. Larger gaps between the lines indicate that
the headline number moved meaningfully as additional survey responses came in. Small
gaps don't prove the data is right — only that it didn't change much within the
monthly revision window. Annual benchmark revisions can still rewrite older months
beyond what this chart shows.