🪲 BugOut Index

040557010057.0BugOut Index
Week of 2026-05-01

Moderate Stability

Warning Signs. The BugOut Index combines six core metrics spanning the economy, public safety, and institutional trust into one 0–100 score. Higher is more stable.
Moderate Stability
Week-over-week: +0.00 points · 3 week(s) of history

Core metrics

Each tile shows the raw value, normalized 0–100 contribution, and weight in the index.

Headline labor numbers move after release. See how much the last 24 months of payrolls have been revised on the data revisions tracker.

Inflation Rate
3.29 %
Normalized 46.86 / 100 Weight 15.0%
FRED (CPIAUCSL) as of 2026-03-01
Violent + Property Crime
2,723.00 per 100k
Normalized 70.36 / 100 Weight 12.0%
Real-Time Crime Index as of 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
Unemployment Rate
4.30 %
Normalized 82.8 / 100 Weight 12.0%
FRED (UNRATE) as of 2026-03-01
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
122.57 %
Normalized 38.72 / 100 Weight 12.0%
FRED (GFDEGDQ188S) as of 2025-10-01
Homelessness Rate
0.23 % of pop.
Normalized 54.0 / 100 Weight 9.0%
HUD AHAR as of 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
Trust in Government
41.00 % confidence
Normalized 51.25 / 100 Weight 12.0%

Markets — weekly close

Spot gold & silver (USD/oz) from gold-api.com; Broad US Dollar Index from FRED (DTWEXBGS).
Gold
4,615.40 USD/oz
Week close +0.33% WoW
Silver
75.47 USD/oz
Week close +2.80% WoW
US Dollar Index
118.73 DXY
Week close +0.00% WoW

Short-term pulse

Faster-moving indicators that sit outside the core index but provide weekly context. Source: FRED.
Initial Jobless Claims
189,000
ICSA as of 2026-04-25
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.30 index
UMCSENT as of 2026-03-01
OECD Business Confidence (US)
98.97 index
BSCICP03USM665S as of 2024-01-01
10y − 2y Treasury Spread
0.51 %
T10Y2Y as of 2026-05-01
VIX (Volatility)
16.89 index
VIXCLS as of 2026-04-30

About this index

The BugOut Index is not a forecast or a prediction. It is a transparent, versioned composite score designed to surface slow-moving shifts in stability that individuals and communities can reason about. All inputs come from public sources; see methodology for the full calculation, weights, and normalization ranges. Historical scores can be recalculated at any time from the raw data in this repository.